Estimating and projecting the size of the AIDS epidemic

This procedure uses back-calculation methods as outlined in West and Thompson (1995). The procedure assumes that all transmission of HIV stopped within the population of interest prior to the years for which data is entered. Therefore, short term projections may be more reliable. In general, the projections may be viewed as a lower bound on the size of the AIDS epidemic.

Keep the following things in mind when using the procedure:

  • Only yearly data can be analyzed for now. The routine will be set up for data for other time intervals shortly.
  • The procedure also assumes a three stage compartmental model for the period of HIV infection. Allowing for other models is in the works.
  • The procedure is only set up to handle the pre-1993 AIDS case definitiion, so you may need to adjust your data.

    • Choose one of the following options:

  • Enter your data into a form.
  • Enter the URL of the file containing your data.
  • Use an example data set.

    • Reference:
    West, R. W. and Thompson, J.R., (1995). Model based back-calculation for the AIDS epidemic. Technical Report 188. University of South Carolina Department of Statistics.

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